POST COVID: WHERE ARE THE DEALS AND WHERE CAN SELLERS YIELD PROFITS?
Which neighborhoods are the most depreciated by Covid? Is anywhere in Manhattan a seller’s market again? Are the greater discounts in the condo or the coop markets?
Clients have been asking me these questions all year and since most official market reports offer only macro-views, we decided to dig beneath the surface to provide intimate snapshots of each major Manhattan neighborhood sub-market and what you can expect in today’s landscape ON THE GROUND.
Which neighborhoods are the most depreciated by Covid? Is anywhere in Manhattan a seller’s market again? Are the greater discounts in the condo or the coop markets?
Clients have been asking me these questions all year and since most official market reports offer only macro-views, we decided to dig beneath the surface to provide intimate snapshots of each major Manhattan neighborhood sub-market and what you can expect in today’s landscape ON THE GROUND.
Tribeca has been a relatively static or declining market in the ensuing years since the market peak of 2015. But due to the typically larger sizes of Tribeca apartments, compared to their counterparts uptown or in Brooklyn, we’ve seen an interesting influx of younger buyers flood the Tribeca market during and after Covid. This has resulted in a nice resurgence in activity and even pricing. In February of 2020, the average price of a 3BR condo was $6.024M, yet by June 2020 the Covid discounts brought the avg price down to $4.572M and by October it was a dreadful $2.684M. However, as of June 2021 the avg price of a 3BR condo has shot up to $6.609M. Tribeca may be seeing a resurgence in the remainder of 2021 and looks to be a hot market again by 2022 if not already.
Chelsea is one of the most advantageous prime locations currently available to buyers looking for deep discounts. For example, in Jan 2020 the average price for a 3BR condo was $6.2M. In May 2021 the average price was $3.622. A combination of the glut of new high-end inventory along the Highline and the Covid/Post-Covid market being generally unavailable to foreign buyers due to travel restrictions has caused depreciation.
In the years following the 2015 market peak, the LES was poised to receive one of the greatest development and infrastructure additions in all of Manhattan, second probably only to NoMad, thanks to scores of new luxury condos of a quality level heretofore unseen, along with the expanded/upgraded Essex Market in its center. But with Covid making other more prime areas like Chelsea and Tribeca available for a discount, the LES has suffered as a result, and many sellers who acquired new development condos in 2016-19 have had to liquidate at a loss. So this is a good opportunity for buyers to come in and reap 10-20% discounts off original acquisition pricing, and we are still very gung ho for the future of this area and buyers would be wise to invest here now. For example there were more sales of 2BR condos here during the months of April-May 2021 (39) than all of 2020 (36). Pricing has not improved but the buyers are clearly taking advantage of the inventory.
Harlem, probably one of the hardest hit during Covid saw a drastic fall in prices. The drop comes more in East Harlem rather than West Harlem although Harlem overall remains a buyers market. The median list price of homes in Harlem was $795K in June 2021, trending down -20.1% year-over-year. The median listing price per square foot was $968. The median sale price was $649.5K.
It’s probably not a surprise that Covid really took the wind out of the sails of Hudson Yards condo product. The premium buildings are selling modestly but more significantly the market for many new (and recently new) construction condos is aggressively pursuing deals. It’s unfortunate because this area still shows enormous promise but the pricing is noticeably depreciated. In March 2020 the median closing price of a 2BR condo was $6.305M, hot on the heels of contracts signed during the healthy rebound we saw in Jan/Feb of 2020. But by December ‘20 it was $3.064M and last month June ‘21 down to $2.527. Still the activity levels are strong so buyers are wise to take advantage. The northern part of Clinton closer to Columbus Circle seems to be faring better than the southern part adjacent to Hudson Yards.
In the 16 years I’ve sold real estate, the UES has never been considered a ‘hot’ market. Well sometime this spring that all changed, and the UES is being treated to activity levels across the board that are remarkable. This may be due to a variety of factors, not the least of which is that without foreigners dominating the condo market, domestic buyers are looking to exploit the high quality of living the area offers. From January 2019 though December 2020, no more than 2 or 3 4BR condos traded. Yet in 2021 every month has seen a minimum of 7 4BRs sold, with June 2021 boasting a whopping 16. The coop market is surging even greater, where the average price of a 4BR coop in October 2020 was a paltry $1.35M yet has increased incrementally over the last several months to a whopping $6.355M in June 2021. This is frankly a great time not just to sell but also to buy in the UES because this wave will likely continue through 2022 and prove the UES is indeed full of appreciating assets.
What can we say about the UWS? Excessively negative press during Covid lockdown about safety and some mean-spirited criticism of the city’s decision to utilize some hotels for homeless shelters could not keep this nabe down. While the number of sales declined (like everywhere else) during Covid, we’ve seen the area bounce right back without hesitation and by late last year we found buyers already caught up in bidding wars. In June 2019 the number of 4BR coop sales here was 8, by June 2020 it had gone down to 5, and last month it was 12. Pricing has not gone up yet but bidding wars have proven that absorption is quite efficient as demand is stronger here than anywhere else in Manhattan.
Not unlike the UWS the West Village traditionally holds its value. What we saw in 2020 was that sellers in the West Village could afford to hold out for a better market rather than sell at a discount or a loss so the amount of trades simply declined. In 2020 the average number of 2BR condos trading was 1.5 per month. Yet since March 2021 that number has reached a minimum of 6 2BR condos trading per month. Perhaps an even better metric is the average price--in Jan 2020 pre-Covid it was $4.03M for a 2BR condo. Yet in Dec 2020 it was $4.178M. It turns out the West Village boasted immunity to Covid.
Midtown East typically yields attention to Midtown West but that’s not what we are seeing presently. While pricing has been fairly stable, with the median price of 2-4BR condos staying curiously the same from essentially mid-2019 to the present, the number of transactions declined during 2020 but have surged this year. There were only 4 2BR condos sold in Dec of ‘20 but by June of ‘21 that number shot up to 24.
Soho selling values were quite strong throughout 2019, then Covid saw sellers holding onto property (similar to the West Village) rather than sell at discount, with much fewer closed sales last year compared to 2019. But 2021 has been extremely active, with the average price of a 3BR condo in June at $7.377M, and the amount of 3BR sales in May ‘21 (12) exceeding any month overe the prior 24 by a longshot.
Spotlight On: Long Island City
Long Island City is showing serious signs of life after the COVID-19 pandemic froze the nation’s fastest growing neighborhood over a year ago. LIC has seen one of the most dramatic growth spurts over the last decade, with condominium properties appreciating by over 60% since some of the first condos launched back in 2006. This is especially compelling since as recently as 20 years ago the area was very much a ghost town.
Long Island City is showing serious signs of life after the COVID-19 pandemic froze the nation’s fastest growing neighborhood over a year ago. LIC has seen one of the most dramatic growth spurts over the last decade, with condominium properties appreciating by over 60% since some of the first condos launched back in 2006. This is especially compelling since as recently as 20 years ago the area was very much a ghost town.
With beautiful views of the city, LIC’s Gantry Plaza State Park is home to the famous Pepsi-Cola sign. In 1940, the sign was placed on top of a massive PepsiCo bottling plant that sat where the park is today. Along the way, take a moment to admire the rugged beauty of the park's centerpieces - restored gantries. These industrial monuments were once used to load and unload rail car floats and barges; today they are striking reminders of the waterfront's past. With the city skyline as a backdrop and the gantries as a stage, the park's plaza is a wonderful place to enjoy a spring or summer concert. Recreational facilities include basketball courts, playgrounds, handball courts, and a fishing pier with its own cleaning table. Continuing down the waterfront you have Hunter's Point South Park. This waterfront park was until recently an abandoned post-industrial area in Long Island City. Transformed into a space that offers fun and relaxation for everyone in the area, the new park includes a central green, playgrounds, adult fitness equipment a dog run, a bikeway, a waterside promenade, picnic terraces a basketball court, a 30-foot-tall cantilevered platform for viewing the skyline and waterfront.
In addition to its aesthetic value, Queens is known for being the most ethnically diverse urban area not only in NYC but the world, offering an array of amazing foods. From food carts, to food trucks to Michelin rated cuisines you can find any cuisine you are craving. Some of our personal favorites are Casa Enrique, Adda, M. Wells Steakhouse, Mu Ramen, King Souvlaki (food truck). Also there are some breweries as well LIC Beer Project, Fifth Hammer Brewing, Rockaway Brewing Company.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
GALERIE LIC
Galerie (22-18 Jackson Ave.) is an 11 story condominium with 182 units
Architecture by ODA, interiors by Paris Forino
Adam America Real Estate (AARE) and Vanke US are the developers of the site, and it is AARE’s first residential condo project in LIC.
The building offers a variety of amenities and upscale features, including a full-size indoor pool, a landscaped courtyard, fitness center, a library with books selected from MoMA PS1, and event space. Other amenities include a children’s playroom, pet spa, and a rooftop terrace.
THE ZIPPER
Former Long Island City zipper factory that was abandoned for 15 years until developer Circle F took it over, retaining its exposed brick walls and timber wood ceilings
one of the last remaining warehouse conversions (like Arris lofts) likely in LIC
41 condo units, ranging from $871,000 for a 1BR to $1.945 million for a 3BR apt
RENTALS
TF CORNERSTONE
52-41 CENTER BOULEVARD
Leasing has launched for market-rate rentals at 52-41 Center Boulevard, TF Cornerstone’s latest high-rise addition to the Long Island City. Located along the East River waterfront, the 46-story tower is one of several residential properties within the Hunter’s Point South mega-development and introduces 394 rental apartments.
The two towers will eventually yield 1,194 apartments. This includes a mix of studios and one- and two-bedroom apartments.
SVEN
QUEENS PARK PLAZA
Sven, aka Queens Plaza Park, a 762-foot-tall skyscraper at 29-37 41st Avenue in Long Island City. Designed by Handel Architects for The Durst Organization, the 67-story project currently holds the title as the second-tallest structure in Queens and will yield a total of 978,000 square feet.
The entire complex will provide 958 rental units, 300 of which will be set aside as affordable housing, according to the Durst Organization. Residential amenities include an outdoor swimming pool, a 20,000-square-foot fitness center, a library, co-working areas, a children’s playroom, and a demonstration kitchen. The nearest transit options to the site are the E, M, and R trains at the Queens Plaza station and the 7, N, and W trains at the elevated Queensboro Plaza station.
THE DESTINATIONS THAT STARTED IT ALL
MOMA PS1
Long Island City’s transition has been a long time coming. In 1976, when Queens officials let curator Alanna Heiss take over an abandoned schoolhouse — “The roof was partially gone,” she remembers — to found the contemporary-art space PS1, “it never occurred to me that in a few years people would not be flocking to that place,” she says. Others saw a similar potential: The Noguchi Museum opened in 1985, and artist Mark di Suvero created the Socrates Sculpture Park a year later in an abandoned illegal dump on the waterfront. Recognized as a defining force in the alternative space movement, MoMA PS1 stands out from other major arts institutions through its distinctive approach to exhibitions and direct involvement of artists within a scholarly framework. Functioning as a living, active meeting place for the general public, MoMA PS1 is a catalyst for ideas, discourses, and new trends in contemporary art.
THE CLIFFS AT LIC
Featuring bouldering, toprope climbing, and lead climbing the Cliffs at LIC is one of the largest rock climbing gyms in the country, and the largest in NYC. It can accommodate over 700 climbers at once (pre-covid) and has 16’ top-out bouldering, mega 60' leads with up to 35' of overhang. Also includes a full fitness gym with cardio equipment and free weights. They aim to give you the best indoor climbing experience whether you are an adult or child.