The Upper East Side is Back

If pricey condo sales are any indication, the Upper East Side is back.

As reported in The Real Deal, the affluent uptown neighborhood dominated Manhattan’s luxury market last week, according to Olshan Realty’s report tracking contract signings for homes asking $4 million and up.

The most expensive contract of the week spanned two condos at Naftali Group’s The Bellemont at 1165 Madison Avenue. Both units are full-floor duplexes, which the buyer plans to combine to create a more than 13,000-square-foot, four-level apartment with 2,350 square feet of outdoor space across eight different terraces. The units were last asking a combined $66.5 million.

A total of 46 luxury contracts were signed last week in Manhattan, the fifth straight week that more than 40 deals were inked in the borough for homes asking at least $4 million.

NYT: Manhattan Apartment Sales Surge to Three-Decade High

One benefit to reading The Lanyard Team’s newsletter each month is the ‘heard it here first’ factor. In this case, the NYT echoes the sentiment of our most recent newsletter. More apartments were sold in Manhattan in the third quarter than at any other time in the last 32 years, in the latest sign that New York City real estate is set for a faster-than-expected recovery, according to new market reports.

There were 4,523 closed sales of co-ops and condos in Manhattan in the third quarter, exceeding the record set in the middle of 2007, when 3,939 sales were recorded. The quarter ended with more than three times as many sales as in the same period in 2020, when the market was largely locked down because of the coronavirus, and with 76.5 percent more sales than the same time in 2019, before the pandemic. This is largely a result of pent up demand.

Market Update - October 2021

CONDO SALES SURGE

COOP SALES CONTINUE TO THRIVE

CONDO SIGNED CONTRACT

1-2M up 120% YOY (from Sept 20)
2-4M up 183% YOY
4-5M up 600% YOY
5-10M up 242% YOY

COOP SIGNED CONTRACTS

1-2M up 36% (from Sept 2020)
2-4M up 19%
4-5M up 250%
5-10M up 400%

NEW LISTINGS

Coops down 48% YOY
Condos down 37% YOY
Coops down 35% MOM (from Aug 2021)
Condos down 11% MOM

We stand by our projections and the fall market is indeed proving to be both healthy and tightening. Signed contracts in the condo sphere are up an average of 285% from Sept of last year. In the 2-4M condo range alone that translated to a total of 139 signed contracts—-that is a significant number. The coop market continues to thrive, with consistent increases in the 1-4M pricepoints but a whopping 250% jump in the 4-5M range—400% in the 5-10M Range.

Furthermore, an interesting metric to consider is that the amount of contracts signed for EVERY CATEGORY ABOVE was at least the same number of contracts (or slightly higher) than the prior month of August. This shows that the market is not just healthy, it is GATHERING SPEED. The fall market is indeed bringing with it higher pricing, faster absorption, and lesser discounts. We have witnessed this firsthand having experienced no fewer than 6 bidding wars over the last few weeks.

Lastly, inventory is shrinking. Both coop and condo inventory are down YOY, and even moreso both inventories are even down from just the prior month of August. Less Inventory + More Demand means sellers are gaining leverage as the Covid discounts dissipate.

On the Ground - Market Update - May 2021

The marketing is changing and it’s getting hotter and faster.

The promising market I depicted in January has come to fruition. By all markers, activity levels continue to surge and the data is encouraging.

MANHATTAN

Average sale price in Manhattan was $1.7 in Q1 down 9.4% from Q1 2020 $1.9M

• Average sale price for new devs was $2.1M in Q1 down 24.6% from Q1 2020 $2.8M

• Both metrics point to higher absorption rates, showing that sellers are meeting the discounts demanded by buyers and trading accordingly

• Listing Discount off last price down to 4.6% v. 7% Q1 2020

• Average overall price per square foot down to $1,387/sf from $1,536/sf Q1 2020

• Absorption is escalating in Manhattan, in both Condo and Coop markets

• Signed contracts increased by 45% from January to April

• All price points thriving, coop contracts $1-4M up over 1000% YOY, condo contracts $1-4M up over 600% YOY

• Condo luxury market $4M+ received 89 signed contracts in April

• Coop luxury market $4M+ received 39 signed contracts in April

BROOKLYN

Brooklyn total deals larger part of pie than a year ago accounting for 53% of total deals an increase of 2 pts over LY 51%

• Brooklyn contract pricing overall less discounted than Manhattan

• Average Brooklyn new listing sales price increased by 10% hitting $1.1M over LY $1.0M

• This is in stark contrast to Manhattan sales prices which have declined by 9% likely due to overall need for discounting

• COVID 19 affected Brooklyn inventory differently than Manhattan

• Brooklyn inventory weeks of supply have remained flat throughout the pandemic, while Manhattan inventory peaked in Summer 20 and remains elevated over LY

• Additionally, Manhattan properties are sitting on the market for an average of 138 days v. 89 in Brooklyn

The GREEN at Lincoln Center

About 14,000 square feet of Lincoln Center's concrete plaza will be transformed into an expansive "lawn" to welcome New Yorkers to its cultural campus.
Designed by Mimi Lien, set designer (Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812) and MacArthur Genius, "The GREEN" will open on May 10th and be the heart of Lincoln Center's Restart Stages initiative to bring back performances and help revive the arts sector. The artificial lawn, surrounding the Revson Fountain in front of the Metropolitan Opera house, features swooping sides, seating areas, and a snack bar.

Contracts Signed Report - February 2021

In deconstructing the data from February’s sales activity, I am struck by a few compelling data points which show where the market is most healthy...see below

• 60% of all condo contracts were at or below $3M, proving the luxury condo market is still depressed but the ‘prosaic’ condo market doing well

• 40% of all condo contracts were btwn $1-2M, which is a curiously limited bracket, meaning most condo buyers were buying smaller and older 2BRs OR newer, larger 1BRs

• the avg sales price for condos was $2.929M, up from $2.826M in Feb ‘20

• the avg sales price for coops was $1.452M, up from $1.226M in Feb ‘20

• only 14% of coop sales were at $2M and above, showing that there is still minimal movement within the larger ‘family’ apt demo

• the East side is beating out the West for transactions, comprising 29% of all contracts opposed to 20% for the West side

• the West side seems to be holding pricing more firmly than the East, but transacting less frequently, which is an unexpected shift

• Downtown sales comprised only 33% of contracts, whereas the remaining 67% across uptown/midtown are the bulk of what’s moving

• Brooklyn is thriving, with over twice as many contracts signed Feb ‘21 over prior year (both condo and coop)

• Condos $2M-4M in Brooklyn received 3x as many contracts YOY

• The single-family Townhouse market in Brooklyn is off the hook, with almost 5x as many signed contracts YOY with the sweetspot of $2-4M homes comprising 40% of all signed contracts

Anecdotally, our team is equally busy in both the condo and coop spheres but we notice the coop market moving more efficiently with lesser discounts off of last asking price. The condo deals on the buy side are more aggressive, but not as frequently as one might expect—many condo owners are still leasing their apts out, waiting for better markets. The Brooklyn market is obviously the one to jump into as the BK submarkets are among the few actually appreciating through the pandemic.

On the Ground Market Update - Oct 2020

The average price of apts which received signed contracts in October ‘20 was $1,170M for coops, $2,904M for condos

• YOY, average price of coops went UP from October ‘19 by 4.7%, whereas average price of condos went UP 27.8%

• Average discount in October was 10.3% from original price for coops, 11.9% for condos, both increased by over 30% from October ‘19